Racing to 2035
Will NDCs Catch Up to Climate Reality?
The deadline for countries to submit new nationally determined contributions (NDCs), their updated climate commitments, is rapidly approaching. These commitments stem from the Paris Agreement and establish targets unique to each country that they’re meant to implement and measure against as they work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The requirement by the Paris agreement is for parties to put forward new NDCs each year, with each round of commitments meant to be stronger than the last.
To date, current NDC targets fall short of what is needed to limit warming. The IPCC cautions emissions must be reduced 43% by 2030, and studies have shown previous rounds of NDCs in 2020 only reduced emissions by 4-10%. It seems like every day new research shows climate impacts are happening faster and with more severity (see the 5 hurricanes in 2024 and wildfires blazing through Los Angeles). These 2025 NDCs mark a critical point in implementation, as they will extend to 2035. This is the middle point from when most countries submitted their first round in 2020 to the 2050 when many have pledged to reach net zero. It is such a crucial time to align short term actions with long-term goals. To do this, countries should put forth NDCs that are transparent in their targets and based on emissions trajectory, outline the underlying technology, policy, and financial plans to support goals, and how the pathway they are choosing is within their respective country’s fair share of the global carbon budget.
What are we looking for in 2025 NDCs:
Significantly more ambitious emissions reductions targets;
Detailed plans for sectoral transformation across key verticals such as energy, agriculture, transportation, and industry (construction, cement, etc);
Adaptation strategies addressing increasing climate impacts such as extreme weather events, sea level rise, and droughts, as well as community-level adaptation measures;
Pathways for rapid transition away from fossil fuels including support for workers and communities affected by economic shifts, and promoting access to clean energy;
Focus on climate finance and just transition measures as outlined in COP29, particularly for developing countries;
Include specific targets for non-CO2 greenhouse gases, such as methane.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emissions must be cut almost in half by 2030 and reduced by 60% by 2035. Think about this for a second–that first target is just five years away. While the main focus should be on GHG reductions, we also need to balance this with an equal amount of carbon removal.
Since November 2024 only four countries have submitted their 2035 NDC targets–United States, Botswana, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Brazil is set to host COP40, so an early NDC submission from them tracks as a good indicator. There have also been announcements around Japan and the UK’s upcoming 2035 NDCs. During the last round of NDC updates, the UK did not increase their ambition. We have seen recently their progress in clean energy, so there is room for a stronger NDC this year.
Resources:
The Climate Watch has a great NDC Tracker that includes the country, their share of global GHG emissions, and overall comparison with their previous NDCs.
The UNFCCC also provides their own NDC Registry.
These trackers are meant for countries to provide transparency towards their climate goals.